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Gas power generation ushers in the golden period
China's gas-fired power generation business has great growth potential, but relatively high costs and missing futures markets are weakening its peaking and environmental value.
On April 16th, at the joint development forum of gas power generation business held in Yangzhou, Hou Venture, general manager of China National Petroleum and Natural Gas Sales Eastern Company (hereinafter referred to as PetroChina Eastern Sales Company) said that China’s gas power generation business is welcoming the golden opportunity period. After Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang provinces introduced gas-electricity on-grid tariff pricing policies, other provinces are gradually establishing gas-electricity on-grid pricing mechanisms, which has made the domestic gas-fired power generation business have more room for development.
Taking Jiangsu as an example, its gas-fired power generation business ranks first in the country. As of March 2018, the installed capacity of gas turbines in the province has reached 13.716 million kilowatts, accounting for about 12% of the total installed capacity of power generation, far higher than the domestic average of 4.78%. Level.
According to China's natural gas development “13th Five-Year Plan”, by 2020, the domestic natural gas power generation capacity will reach 110 million kilowatts or more, accounting for more than 5% of the total installed power generation. Compared with 2016, the new installed capacity will increase by more than 80%. .
However, Wu Libo, deputy director of the Energy Economics and Development Strategy Research Center of Fudan University, said that the current economic cost of domestic gas-fired power generation is not good, which is 2-3 times the cost of coal-fired power generation. Because of the relatively high cost, there is no futures for electricity and natural gas. The market, gas and electricity lack linkage mechanism and manage price risk ability, which greatly weakened the peaking and environmental value of gas power generation.
"To play the peaking role of gas-fired power generation, the power generation market should enable gas-fired generating units to enjoy priority power generation rights and power generation rights trading mechanisms, and the natural gas spot market must also achieve gas peaking-assisted trading, etc." Wu Libo pointed out that with the winter With the arrival of gas-fired power generation enterprises, they may face the risk of gas shortages with overlapping peaks and peaks, and both gas and electricity are insufficient. "The ongoing reform of the electricity and natural gas market in China has a significant impact on the solution of the gas-fired power generation problem," he said.
Li Jian, chairman of the Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center, said that the trading of the natural gas spot market will be conducive to the formation of the gas power pricing mechanism. "On April 18, the trading center will launch July and November mid- and long-term cargo (LNG) bidding pre-sale transactions to strengthen the management of natural gas price risks." Li Jian said.
The above-mentioned forum was jointly organized by PetroChina Eastern Sales Company, Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center and China Huadian Group Jiangsu Branch. The main purpose is to focus on the policies and experience of Jiangsu's gas power generation industry development in the past seven years, and to explore the five provinces and one city in the eastern part of China. The development direction of the gas power generation industry.
Last year, the total consumption of natural gas in Jiangsu was 21.7 billion cubic meters, ranking first in all provinces in China. The gas for gas-fired power generation was 8.2 billion cubic meters, accounting for 37.6% of the total natural gas consumption in the province, which is higher than the domestic average of 19.9%. Nearly half.
In 2017, US power generation gas accounted for 30.4% of total natural gas consumption, with the UK accounting for 23.8% and South Korea with 44%.
The proportion of gas used in power generation in Jiangsu will increase in the next three years. According to its “13th Five-Year Plan” natural gas development plan, by 2020, the installed capacity of natural gas power generation in the province will exceed 20 million kilowatts, accounting for 15% of the total installed capacity of power generation, and the proportion of coal-fired installed capacity will drop to 63%. By then, Jiangsu's power generation capacity will reach about 17 billion cubic meters.
In addition to gas-fired power generation, natural gas consumption also includes three major segments: urban gas, industrial fuel and transportation fuel. Different from the general distribution of urban gas business, domestic natural gas power generation and installation is concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim and Pearl River Delta regions.
“In order to achieve complementary advantages, most of the domestic gas-fired power plants are joint ventures, which are generally operated by three types of state-owned large-scale power generation enterprises, provincial energy investment groups and oil and gas supply companies.” Professor-level senior economy of China Petroleum Economics and Technology Research Institute Shi Weiwei said that from the perspective of gas-powered installed capacity, state-owned large-scale power generation enterprises occupy a leading role.
The largest share of the total is China Huadian Group (hereinafter referred to as Huadian), followed by China Huaneng Group (hereinafter referred to as Huaneng). As of the end of 2016, Huadian has put into operation gas-electric installed capacity of 11.96 million kilowatts, accounting for 8.1% of the Group's total installed capacity, accounting for 17.1% of domestic natural gas power generation installed capacity; Huaneng has put into operation gas-electric installed capacity of 8.71 million kilowatts in China, accounting for domestic natural gas power generation. The total installed capacity is 12.4%.
Among oil and gas companies, CNPC and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (hereinafter referred to as CNOOC) are mainly involved in gas power generation. By the end of 2016, CNOOC's gas-electricity group had built six power plants in Zhongshan, such as Zhongshan Jiaming Power Plant, Hainan Yangpu Power Plant and Guangdong Huizhou Power Plant. The total installed capacity of power generation reached 6.8 million kilowatts, accounting for the total domestic installed capacity of gas and electricity. 9.7%.
Last year, PetroChina's eastern sales company sold 40.156 billion cubic meters of natural gas, an increase of 18.41% year-on-year, and accounted for more than a quarter of CNPC. PetroChina Eastern Sales Company is based on the sales organization of the West First Line of the West-East Gas Pipeline Branch, covering Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang and Shanghai.
By the end of 2017, PetroChina Eastern Sales Company had 314 downstream users, including 22 power plant users, with a market share of more than 60% in the above regions.